Our planet is hurtling towards a number of climate milestones, many of which are undeniably alarming. For example, a team of scientists using computer models to predict Arctic melting scenarios found that the Arctic’s first ice-free day could occur by the end of this decade, though a date later in the century is more likely.
Arctic sea ice is already approaching a historic low, with the polar region subject to rapid warming, largely due to greenhouse gas emissions. As sea ice melts and freezes again with the passing of the seasons, the least amount of sea ice in a given year helps scientists track climate conditions. In 2024, that was 1.65 million square miles, about half of the average amount of sea ice during summers in the 1980s. Ice-free conditions would occur when there is less than 1 million square kilometers of ice. In recent years, sea ice growth has been much thinner than it was in previous decades. It also melts more easily, especially when storms accelerate the ice breaking up.
Yet when that first ice-free day occurs is still uncertain and could change if the coming years bring a drastic change in greenhouse gas emissions. Using information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, researchers used computer models to make various predictions. The most likely time frame is sometime between 2032 and 2043, though some models suggest that it could occur as soon as 2027 or, conversely, not until the 2070s. And with urgent action to curb global warming, it’s still theoretically possible that we will never have an ice-free Arctic.
On increasingly thin ice:
- According to the researchers, ice-free conditions are almost certain to occur this century unless global warming is limited to the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Yet this possibility seems increasingly remote, not least because the United States is now in the process of pulling out of the climate accord for the second time.
- Every year from 2015 to 2024 ranks among the planet’s 10 warmest years on record. 2024 was the warmest of all, with most climate agencies reporting that the global average temperature exceeded the pre-industrial average by 1.6 °C, marking the first time that warming exceeded the 1.5 °C threshold.
- Alarmingly, unless drastic action is taken, the UN Environment Programme predicts that global warming could exceed 3 °C (5.4 °F) above pre-industrial averages by the end of the 21st century, with potentially catastrophic effects.