The world’s oldest person, María Branyas Morera, died earlier this week at the age of 117 years and 168 days. Her incredible lifespan makes her the eighth-longest-lived person in history, at least when it comes to individuals whose ages can be verified.
While living to 110 or older is extremely unusual (the Gerontology Research Group estimates that there are less than 500 supercentenarians worldwide), it’s becoming less of an anomaly to live past 100. While records are inexact, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there were just 2,300 centenarians (someone aged 100 or older) in the United States in 1950. That number has risen steadily over the past seven decades, reaching approximately 101,000 in 2024.
However, that relatively consistent increase is about to be dwarfed by a demographic explosion. Over the next 30 years, the number of U.S. centenarians is projected to quadruple. According to a medium-variant scenario, there will be around 422,000 people in the triple digits in 2054. Centenarians will make up 0.1% of the total U.S. population, up from a current estimate of 0.03%.
The increase in centenarians reflects the general aging trend of the U.S. population. While there are currently around 62 million Americans aged 65 and older, there will be an estimated 84 million in 2054. As a proportion of the total population, that’s an increase from 18% to 23%.
More about American centenarians:
- U.S. centenarians are nearly three times more numerous than they were just three decades ago, when the 1990 census recorded 37,000.
- Currently, nearly 8 in 10 U.S. centenarians are women. While a large gender disparity will still exist in the 2050s, the Census Bureau projects that the proportion will be closer to 68% women and 32% men.
- Likewise, the racial and ethnic disparities among the nation’s longest-lived individuals will persist, though less significantly. Currently, 77% of Americans in their 100s are White; that proportion is expected to fall to 72% by 2054.
