Cafe41-Election news is always fun to listen to. It is important however, to take the polls with a grain of salt.
In the 2004 Presidential election, there was exit polling done that indicated that the majority of the people polled voted for John Kerry when in reality the results went the other way and President George W. Bush was reelected by a 5% margin.
Also, there has been some data to suggest that some election polls are biased by oversampling the registered Democrats and under sampling the Republican voters. This is why online straw polls or any polls for that matter do not always represent the truth.
I think the most accurate pollster is Scott Rasmussen. His reports to my knowledge have never been wrong.